The State of Toronto FC: Optimism?

The MLS season is officially done, with Sporting KC beating Real Salt Lake on penalties to claim the MLS Cup for the 2013 season. After that was done, I (and everyone else) noticed something strange in the inner workings of Major League Soccer. Toronto FC was actually making trades and assembling a squad for the 2014 season in December, rather than when the season actually starts.

It's refreshing to see, actually. Looks like TFC GM Tim Bezbatchenko is beginning to execute his plan early and try to get in all the guys he wants before pre-season begins. Add in the fact that the management of TFC is completely new, and you get the sense that some TFC supporters are becoming optimistic about next season. The actions that Tim Bezbatchenko are taking seem to be promising, like obtaining Jackson from FC Dallas and Justin Morrow from San Jose, getting rid of highly-paid players like Stefan Frei and Bobby Convey for draft picks, and bringing in the 24 year old Gilberto from Brazil to be Toronto FC's 2nd Designated Player. On the surface, it can be said that TFC is moving in a positive direction, but we need to see how TFC does in the 2014 MLS SuperDraft, and more importantly, we need to see how these new players coming in will do in Major League Soccer. Bezbatchenko started well, now let's see if all his moves work out.

A big topic of discussion with TFC is whether Jermain Defoe will be coming to the club or not. It is rumoured that his move is already finished and he is set to become the highest paid player in MLS history. Whether that is the case or not, if he comes to TFC, he is more than capable of winning the MLS Golden Boot award at the end of the 2014 regular season. I know there are some who think Jermain Defoe is being paid too much by MLSE and is not a good use of resources, but I disagree. If Jermain Defoe does play for TFC, there'll be more to his contract than just playing for the club. In Jermain Defoe, TFC and MLSE may have a strong marketing tool. I have no question that if Toronto FC land Defoe, they will use his name and image to promote the club and get fans to come to BMO Field on match days.

But wait, I can hear some TFC supporters already saying: "The best way to get fans in seats is for the club to start winning!" This is true, but there is nothing wrong with MLSE using their resources to get players and drum up some sort of positive interest. Who would have thought that having Drake as MLSE's "Global Ambassador" could help TFC land Gilberto, and quite possibly Defoe. Now look at where these players are coming from. Gilberto is coming from South America, particularly from Brazil. Defoe is coming from Europe, particularly from England. The Greater Toronto Area has a large population of those from South American and European descent who follow the leagues in their respective continents, but not Major League Soccer. I hope Tim Leiweke and MLSE have identified this segment as a target market for Toronto FC. I think TFC should get Gilberto and Defoe heavily involved in the promotional element of the club, in order to begin attracting that segment of people and to get them to come out to BMO Field for matches. This attraction can snowball into something bigger if Gilberto and Defoe are regularly scoring goals, and TFC are winning matches. Then you will see people come out in droves to BMO and it will go a long way in returning the atmosphere that made BMO Field amazing in the early days of Toronto FC.

There are also some rumblings of Dwayne De Rosario coming back to Toronto FC. Honestly, I would love to have him back. I know he left the club in bad terms, but Toronto FC is run by entirely new management, and I get the feeling that most TFC supporters can put the bad things behind them and start anew. Age and injuries is starting to catch up to him, but I think he has a year, maybe 2 years still in him. If Tim Bezbatchenko can get him on a reduced salary, say around $150,000/year, then I think it will be a solid signing.

Looking at the big picture of Toronto FC as a whole, I don't think Tim Leiweke and Tim Bezbatchenko are only just building a competitive squad of players. I think they are reinventing Toronto FC. I haven't seen this sort of change to Toronto FC since Aron Winter was hired. Instead of trying to win the lottery and get foreigners, Leiweke and Bezbatchenko are getting proven MLS players to build the core of Toronto FC. I'll be honest, it's pretty difficult not to be encouraged by what has transpired at Toronto FC these past couple of weeks, and it looks like more is to come. I initially thought that Tim Bezbatchenko would be inexperienced in a General Manager role, but he has certainly impressed me, not just in the actions he was taking, but he manages to keep his mouth shut until after the move was made. He doesn't talk a big game, he just gets down to business, and I like that a lot. Sometimes what seems to be the most boring hire, could have the most impact on a club.

Finally, I want to say this. Toronto FC making the playoffs in 2014 will be a slap in the face to the likes of Tom Anselmi and Earl Cochrane (and to a very small extent, Paul Beirne). If Toronto FC were to make the playoffs in 2014, then it highlights what the real underlying problem was which plagued Toronto FC these last 7 years. TFC making the playoffs in 2014 will also be a slap in the face to the other "big men" that used to have their own visions of what TFC should be, like Mo Johnston, Aron Winter, and Kevin Payne. I'm not sure how Aron Winter's tenure at Toronto FC will hurt his future coaching and managerial career, but if Toronto FC happens to succeed, it will definitely hurt Mo Johnston and Kevin Payne's reputation, and won't help their chances of getting hired elsewhere. Also, wouldn't it be funny that if Toronto FC were to make the playoffs, it would be led by the least experienced Toronto FC coach, but that's assuming Ryan Nelsen doesn't get fired. It's Toronto FC. Anything can happen.

Regardless, these are optimistic times in the land of Toronto FC.

2014 FIFA World Cup Group Stage Draw - Reaction + Predictions

So, the Group Stage Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup is all set. After taking a few hours to digest the newly-formed groups, it's about time for me to share my thoughts on those groups, and offer (very early) predictions on who I think will make it out of the groups. Some groups were easy to predict, and others require a lot of thinking to predict. Anyways, here's what I thought:

Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon

Not surprisingly, since the World Cup is being hosted by Brazil, they are going to get most of the spotlight in the tournament. Brazil have shown that they can respond well to the pressure of the home crowd (Confederations Cup 2013), so I don't see Brazil having much trouble with their opponents. Cameroon, on the other hand, have a couple of decent players (Eto'o, Song) but I can't see them progressing out of the group.

Mexico and Croatia are interesting to me, as they both underperformed getting to the World Cup. Mexico had an awful CONCACAF campaign and had to beat New Zealand in the FIFA play-off. Croatia had to beat a spirited Iceland side in the UEFA play-off. I picked Croatia to progress because they have more quality players than Mexico, and Mexico were just plain awful in the hex. Mexico needs a lot more improvement than Croatia do.

It's worth noting that Croatia (3429) has to travel almost 3000 miles more than Mexico does (662) to get to their matches. This is an advantage for Mexico, as they will be more fresh than Croatia when they finally play each other for their final group matches.

My Predictions: Brazil to top the group, Croatia to finish runner-up.

Group B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia

First things first, I'm sure Australia are just happy to actually make it.

Spain, even though they've regressed slightly, are still one of the top teams in world football and are capable of repeating as World Cup champions. This is obviously a tough group for them, but they'll have these teams chasing the ball up and down the pitch with their tiki-taka style, so I'm sure they'll progress.

The Netherlands and Chile will be the ones to battle it out for the second spot out of the group. Both teams are ruthless and hungry in attack, but they are a bit weak in the back. I picked the Netherlands over Chile because of their experience in big tournaments and Chile are a bit of a young, almost naive side, especially when I watched them play Brazil at the Rogers Centre.

My Predictions: Spain to top the group, Netherlands to finish runner-up.

Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan

Colombia is my "dark horse" of the tournament. That team has the power to surprise a lot of people and go very deep in the tournament. They are the favourites to finish first in the group. Plus, they have Falcao, who is probably one of the best strikers in world football right now.

It was a tough choice for who would take the second spot. The Ivory Coast are stacked in attacking options (Drogba, Gervinho, Bony) and have Yaya Toure as their midfield destroyer. Japan are playing well right now and have some outstanding creative players in Kagawa and Honda. Greece are industrial (aka boring), but are difficult to break down. I ended up barely choosing the Ivory Coast over Japan.

My Predictions: Colombia to top the group, Ivory Coast to finish runner-up.

Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy

Costa Rica may be a solid team in CONCACAF, but they have no chance in this group.

Which leaves 3 teams competing for 2 spots. I believe Italy are the best team in this group, but not by much. If their world-renowned defence can stay focused and not make stupid mistakes, then they are winning the group. Uruguay have the best offence in the group, with Suarez and Cavani leading the charge, among other sublime players on that side.

England are another story altogether. They have good players, and on a good day, they can hang with the best of Europe, but they lack creativity. Their style of play is very direct, not very technical, and easy to figure out by opponents. It also doesn't help that there is going to be a media circus around them. The English footballing media hypes up the England players as superstars and make bold claims that "this is our year", but then slam those same players when England are knocked out. A lot of people talk about why England don't have a very good national team. Lets face it, the media is one of the major reasons why.

My Predictions: Italy to top the group, Uruguay to finish runner-up.

Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras

France ALWAYS seems to get the easiest group. I don't know if this is just coincidence, or Michel Platini is paying FIFA under the table (don't think many would be surprised at that lol). Anyways, France at a World Cup is usually hit (1998, 2006) or miss (2002, 2010). If we were to follow the pattern, France should do just fine. Let's hope there are no more mutinies in that solid core of players.

Honduras did well to get to this stage, but they will be outclassed in this group. It was a bit difficult to choose between Switzerland and Ecuador, but after looking at their teams, I chose the Swiss.

My Predictions: France to top the group, Switzerland to finish runner-up.

Group F: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria

Argentina are, by far, the best team in this group. The other teams don't come close. With Argentina, I think the narrative will surround Lionel Messi and say something like: "Can he finally win the World Cup and become one of the best players to ever play the game". Something like that.

Bosnia and Nigeria is close to call for the second spot in the group. I think Bosnia has a bit more quality going forward, and they also have a solid goalkeeper in Asmir Begovic.

Honestly, I can't really say much about the Iran national team, because I don't really know them.

My Predictions: Argentina to top the group, Bosnia-Herzegovina to finish runner-up.

Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA

Yikes. I think this is the toughest group of them all in terms of the teams involved.

Germany are the ones that will most likely finish first in the group. They have a number of amazing players that can take the team deep in the tournament. Portugal's national team isn't that great, but they do have Cristiano Ronaldo, a player who can single-handedly turn the match on its head and push Portugal to the later stages of the tournament. Portugal is the perfect example of the "one-man team". Ghana has some very good midfield and attacking options, but I can't see them progressing.

Which brings me to the USA. The odds are stacked against them. If there is any national team I can think of that has the "never say die" attitude, it is the USA, but I think this is too much for them. They have to travel the most out of all the teams in the World Cup, they have to face a Ghana side that knocked them out of the last 2 World Cups, and they have to play two European juggernauts. The American football media can hype the team all they want, but I don't think they will be progressing.

My Predictions: Germany to top the group, Portugal to finish runner-up.

Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, Korea Republic

Belgium have a "golden generation" of players, and many people pick them to be the surprise of the tournament. I don't think they will do well in the later stages of the tournament, but I think they will top the group. I picked Russia to come second, because I don't think Algeria and South Korea will do a whole lot.

My Predictions: Belgium to top the group, Russia to finish runner-up.

So, there you have it. A lot can change between now and June. Some teams that people may have wrote off can go on an incredible run of form, or maybe some teams picked to be favourites may go on a slump. Who knows? I may revisit my predictions closer to the World Cup, but for now, this is what I am sticking with.