My Predictions for the 2014 Toronto FC Season

2013 was a year of change. The only thing that didn't change was that Toronto FC was still a losing team, missing the MLS playoffs again for a seventh straight year. However, there were a number of things that happened that, once again, gave supporters a sense of optimism. MLSE CEO Tim Leiweke and TFC GM Tim Bezbatchenko have brought in a number of high-profile players in order to try and rejuvenate the club and hopefully give the supporters something to cheer about. The supporters hope that the likes of Jermain Defoe, Michael Bradley, and Julio Cesar, along with head coach Ryan Nelsen, can finally deliver a playoff spot for Toronto FC.

It's time to give my predictions for the 2014 Toronto FC season. I did this last year, with limited success, but I think I feel somewhat confident about this one. Let's get this started.

The most important question that is being presented in the new season is whether Toronto FC will make the playoffs in 2014. I had to think about this for a while, and after taking into account the new players, the new management, and the overall positive and professional atmosphere surrounding the club, I believe that Toronto FC will make the 2014 MLS Playoffs. However, I don't think that they will finish as strong as people will expect. I see them finishing in the third or fourth spot in the Eastern Conference. About the playoffs, I can't see Toronto FC making it to the MLS Cup Final. I think that they will be eliminated either in the Eastern Conference Semi-Final, or the Eastern Conference Final, as I believe the likes of Sporting KC and the New York Red Bulls have stronger teams. 

With this new-look team, there is a lot of pressure being put on Ryan Nelsen. I think it's great that he used his influence to bring in Jermain Defoe and Julio Cesar, but influencing players to come play for your club and coaching those players are two different things. A lot is being made of Ryan Nelsen's leadership, but I don't think Ryan Nelsen has the tactical acumen to continually deliver positive results at Toronto FC. Ryan Nelsen will be fired as head coach of Toronto FC at some point during the season. There have been a number of games last season where Toronto lost points due to Ryan Nelsen making odd substitutions, failing to adapt his tactics to gain an advantage in a match, or both. I think TFC could fall into an early-season (or even a mid-season) slump, and he will be the reason for it. Also, I wouldn't be surprised in Tim Bezbatchenko has a replacement in line if Ryan Nelsen were to consistently fail in delivering results for the club.

There has been a lot of discussion surrounding the shock year-long loan of Queens Park Rangers goalkeeper Julio Cesar to Toronto FC. There are a number of supporters who think Julio Cesar will do a great job behind the goal posts, but I'm not so sure about that. I would be lying to you if I told you I wasn't skeptical of Julio Cesar and how he will do this season. I'm confident in saying that Julio Cesar will not perform to expectations. I say this for two reasons. The first reason is that he doesn't really have any challengers for the #1 goalkeeping spot for the Brazil national team, so it's not like he can take his tenure with Toronto FC seriously, though I hope he does. The second reason why I say this is because Julio Cesar's loan move reminded me of when Carlo Cudicini signed for the Los Angeles Galaxy last year. Cudicini was a somewhat high-profile keeper who put in a number of awful performances for LA. Julio Cesar is also a high-profile goalkeeper who I hope won't put in the consistently awful performances like Cudicini did. Julio Cesar will have his good performances, but he will also have his poor performances, more than most supporters will expect. One last thing about Julio Cesar, he is a definite upgrade over Joe Bendik. Joe Bendik, despite having an okay season with Toronto FC, has a lot of glaring flaws that sorely need to be addressed.

Another talking point in Toronto FC's season is how Jermain Defoe will do in his first season as a Toronto FC player. I found it difficult to quantify how he will do, but I think that his lack of involvement in Toronto FC's pre-season could negatively affect how Defoe will perform when the season rolls around. With that said, Jermain Defoe will not be the MLS top scorer this season, though he will have a good season regardless. I think Defoe will hit his stride near the end of the season and I think he will score between 12-15 goals this season.

Some other quick predictions for the upcoming season:

Matias Laba will not be a Toronto FC player by the time TFC play their first regular season game.

Michael Bradley will be the team MVP for this season. If not, then Jermain Defoe will be my second choice.

Gilberto will score between 7-9 goals this season.

Doneil Henry will get a red card at least three times during the regular season.

An important Toronto FC player will get injured during their friendly against Tottenham Hotspur.

The last thing I want to talk about are the Toronto FC social media outlets. I noticed that a new person is running the social media accounts, and it is evident that the style in how Toronto FC posts in their social media outlets this year is different to last year. Maybe I'll warm up to this new guy running the social media outlets in due time, but I think the social media outlets are a bit unprofessional nowadays (I can't be the only person thinking this), and I think this person uses the outlets to post some inside jokes that most TFC supporters wouldn't understand. I can see one of the Toronto FC social media outlets (probably the Twitter account) be embroiled in some sort of controversy. Maybe a social media outlet will insult an opposing player, or make fun of an opposing coach, or even tweet about something not remotely related to Toronto FC. What I'm trying to say is, I think the unprofessionalism of the Toronto FC social media outlets, run by this new guy, will be called out by someone important. Maybe it might be someone in the media, or a member of an opposing club. Who knows.

Anyways, these are my predictions. I will probably revisit this post at the end of the season. Until then, I wish Toronto FC the best of luck in the 2014 MLS Season.

Random Thoughts 12

Okay, story time...

I once knew this guy in high school (I'll call him B), and we knew each other since elementary school. He's an incredibly intelligent and responsible person who I thought would be very successful when he got older, and as of now, I guess that's partly true. Even though he was a bit of a dick sometimes, he was okay to be around, and some of the more spineless kids looked up to him and followed him wherever he went. Anyways, back in high school, he was the Student Council president, and he didn't have any enemies, but he was susceptible to doing something stupid in order to please some of his friends.

I remember back in Grade 12, he was in class working on something with his friends (I wasn't in this class). Now, there was another student in the class (I'll call him M) who was a bit nerdy and goofy looking, and other people made fun of him regularly. One of the guys in the group (who I'll call S) dared B to go up behind M and grab him on his ass. I can't remember what B wanted in return, but B agreed to do it. S was armed with a video camera and B went in position behind M, who was bending over to look at something. In one fell swoop, B grabbed M on the ass, but B didn't do it once, he did it twice, in the same class, on the same day.

The videos of the Student Council President grabbing another student on the ass made it on Youtube for a few weeks, and pretty much everyone on the school saw the videos. Then the school administration caught wind of the videos and B got in trouble. The videos were taken down. I think B got to keep his Student Council President title, but I can't remember the actual punishment he actually got. I'm sure this incident is something he will definitely regret.

Okay, another high school story...

I knew this guy who was in my Grade 12 Math class (who I'll call JJ). JJ was Asian, and I could tell by looking at his behavior that he was someone that cared deeply about the marks and grades he got in school (probably instilled in him by his parents). Another tidbit about JJ was that he was named after a popular rock singer (I'll let you figure out who that is). One day in class, the teacher was handing back a test we previously completed that marked. JJ got his test back and he began to throw a bitch fit. Why, you ask? Because he got an 80 on the test.

Now if this was me getting that 80, I'd be pretty happy. I'd find out about what I did wrong so that I won't make the same mistakes in future tests, and then be on my way. JJ, on the other hand, was almost in tears and complaining to the teacher about the mark he was given. In one way, I was laughing my ass off that this guy would get up in arms over an 80 on a test. In another way, I felt a bit sad for him, as he was normally a student who would normally get 90+ on tests. I don't think before this, he's experienced getting a grade less than 90. I would have loved to be in the room if he ever failed a test, that's for sure.

Alright, I'm gonna switch gears from the high school stories and talk about something else.

When it comes to the people in my life, I always believed that it was important to try to keep the people who have made a positive impact in my life, and cut ties with the people who have made a negative impact in my life. That has always been a rule I always lived by and I continue to live by to this day. I once knew someone who was at one time a great friend. Nowadays whenever I reach out to that person, that person doesn't even respond, and whenever I post something on social media that person doesn't like, that person responds with negativity.

I just don't feel like I should invest my time in that friendship, regardless of how close we were at one point. Frankly, I'm just tired of it, and I've moved on. I hope that person has moved on as well. I will treasure the good times, but I can't stay open to that person anymore, and I hope I never hear from that person again.

I've never fully addressed that issue, but with what I just wrote, I hope I've cleared things up once and for all. I hope this is the last I will talk about that.

The State of Toronto FC: A Red Letter Day

I think it's safe to say that yesterday was the biggest day in Toronto FC's history so far.

I watched the news conference in the solitude of my room, and what I could sense on my television screen at Real Sports Bar & Grill was a sense of hope. I could sense the hope within the supporters and within the TFC and MLSE management. If you've been living under a rock for the past few days, Toronto FC have formally announced the signings of English striker Jermain Defoe and American midfielder Michael Bradley. In terms of their skill and talent, I don't think there is an equal in Major League Soccer. Defoe is a proven goal scorer with quick feet and deadly finishing. Bradley has strong leadership, and is a workhorse in the center of midfield, which has been shown on multiple occasions with the American National Team. To state the obvious, they are massive upgrades to Toronto FC, and could finally push the team to the long-eluded MLS playoffs.

Despite the general positivity at the news conference, there were a few things that irked me. Like most news conferences, there was a lot of filler and pandering to the supporters from all 5 men up on stage. Another thing that annoyed me from the news conference is that I didn't feel like Defoe and Bradley were honest when they were asked what made them come to Toronto and play for TFC. It's painfully obvious that they are going to be paid a huge salary from TFC and MLSE and they will have the security they need for their families. I'm not dismissing that both Defoe and Bradley were intrigued by the ambition and commitment from TFC and MLSE, I just don't believe that as the main reason as to why they want to play for TFC. It's like if you were working for someone at a set salary and you receive an offer from an employer halfway around the world who will pay 4-5 times your current salary. Odds are, you'll take the offer.

The last thing that annoyed me about the press conference was that when Tim Leiweke and Tim Bezbatchenko were talking about acquiring Defoe and Bradley, they kept referring to the patience of the supporters and "rewarding their loyalty" with these signings. I don't know about other supporters, but if TFC really wants to reward loyalty, they need to win matches, and more importantly, deliver trophies to Toronto FC. I'm not talking about trophies like the Voyageurs Cup, I'm talking about the MLS Cup, Supporters Shield, and maybe, just maybe, the CONCACAF Champions League title (but that is wishful thinking). In my opinion, you don't reward loyalty by getting players, you reward loyalty by winning.

I'll move away from the news conference now, and I want to talk about something that was in the deal that was made in signing Defoe between MLSE and Tottenham Hotspur. That would be the "Advertising Rights Agreement" between the two organizations. I'll break it down piece by piece and talk about what I think it will mean to both TFC and Spurs.

The deal will see Toronto FC and MLSE provide promotional and branding opportunities, experiential activities and advertising, broadcasting, social media and digital rights across all of MLSE’s properties and media platforms.

What I understand from this is that Defoe will essentially become the face of TFC's marketing. Along with Bradley, Gilberto, and De Rosario, TFC has the players and the resources to attract former fans of Toronto FC to come back and support the team, as well as attract new fans to come to BMO Field. MLSE has four target markets: the Canadian (De Rosario), The American (Bradley), the South American (Gilberto), and the English/European market (Defoe). They are going to be everywhere. What I don't know is whether Spurs will be involved with these promotional and branding opportunities, since this is part of the deal between MLSE and Spurs.

Additionally, MLSE will carry Tottenham Hotspur F.C. official merchandise at their retail outlets, as well as support the THFC Official Canadian Supporter's Club.

MLSE selling Spurs merchandise will be beneficial for Spurs, as they can potentially gain new fans in Toronto from the sales of their merchandise, as well as get a cut from the sales. There is also a possibility that there are some TFC fans that don't have a team in the Premier League to support, and looking at the agreement that is in place between MLSE and Spurs, it could be said that TFC fans who don't have a Premier League team to support could possibly adopt Spurs. Conversely, members of the Spurs Canadian Supporter's Club who don't really watch TFC could possibly be enticed to come out to BMO Field to watch TFC, or at the least, Jermain Defoe.

Toronto FC will welcome Jermain’s former club to BMO Field on July 23 when it plays Tottenham in the second game of their 2014 summer tour.

A friendly is yet another opportunity for revenue for both clubs and will give the opportunity for Spurs fans in the GTA to go see the club. It will obviously be at a premium price but it can also be argued that this would be a once in a lifetime opportunity for Spurs fans in the GTA to go see their team. Overall, I think this agreement between MLSE and Spurs can be very fruitful for both teams, but I think Spurs has more to gain from this agreement.

One more thing. From these investments by MLSE this off-season, and how they have publicly stated that they will be losing money this year, I think it's a pretty safe bet that season ticket prices will increase next year.

Regardless, this upcoming season will be intriguing.

The State of Toronto FC: Optimism?

The MLS season is officially done, with Sporting KC beating Real Salt Lake on penalties to claim the MLS Cup for the 2013 season. After that was done, I (and everyone else) noticed something strange in the inner workings of Major League Soccer. Toronto FC was actually making trades and assembling a squad for the 2014 season in December, rather than when the season actually starts.

It's refreshing to see, actually. Looks like TFC GM Tim Bezbatchenko is beginning to execute his plan early and try to get in all the guys he wants before pre-season begins. Add in the fact that the management of TFC is completely new, and you get the sense that some TFC supporters are becoming optimistic about next season. The actions that Tim Bezbatchenko are taking seem to be promising, like obtaining Jackson from FC Dallas and Justin Morrow from San Jose, getting rid of highly-paid players like Stefan Frei and Bobby Convey for draft picks, and bringing in the 24 year old Gilberto from Brazil to be Toronto FC's 2nd Designated Player. On the surface, it can be said that TFC is moving in a positive direction, but we need to see how TFC does in the 2014 MLS SuperDraft, and more importantly, we need to see how these new players coming in will do in Major League Soccer. Bezbatchenko started well, now let's see if all his moves work out.

A big topic of discussion with TFC is whether Jermain Defoe will be coming to the club or not. It is rumoured that his move is already finished and he is set to become the highest paid player in MLS history. Whether that is the case or not, if he comes to TFC, he is more than capable of winning the MLS Golden Boot award at the end of the 2014 regular season. I know there are some who think Jermain Defoe is being paid too much by MLSE and is not a good use of resources, but I disagree. If Jermain Defoe does play for TFC, there'll be more to his contract than just playing for the club. In Jermain Defoe, TFC and MLSE may have a strong marketing tool. I have no question that if Toronto FC land Defoe, they will use his name and image to promote the club and get fans to come to BMO Field on match days.

But wait, I can hear some TFC supporters already saying: "The best way to get fans in seats is for the club to start winning!" This is true, but there is nothing wrong with MLSE using their resources to get players and drum up some sort of positive interest. Who would have thought that having Drake as MLSE's "Global Ambassador" could help TFC land Gilberto, and quite possibly Defoe. Now look at where these players are coming from. Gilberto is coming from South America, particularly from Brazil. Defoe is coming from Europe, particularly from England. The Greater Toronto Area has a large population of those from South American and European descent who follow the leagues in their respective continents, but not Major League Soccer. I hope Tim Leiweke and MLSE have identified this segment as a target market for Toronto FC. I think TFC should get Gilberto and Defoe heavily involved in the promotional element of the club, in order to begin attracting that segment of people and to get them to come out to BMO Field for matches. This attraction can snowball into something bigger if Gilberto and Defoe are regularly scoring goals, and TFC are winning matches. Then you will see people come out in droves to BMO and it will go a long way in returning the atmosphere that made BMO Field amazing in the early days of Toronto FC.

There are also some rumblings of Dwayne De Rosario coming back to Toronto FC. Honestly, I would love to have him back. I know he left the club in bad terms, but Toronto FC is run by entirely new management, and I get the feeling that most TFC supporters can put the bad things behind them and start anew. Age and injuries is starting to catch up to him, but I think he has a year, maybe 2 years still in him. If Tim Bezbatchenko can get him on a reduced salary, say around $150,000/year, then I think it will be a solid signing.

Looking at the big picture of Toronto FC as a whole, I don't think Tim Leiweke and Tim Bezbatchenko are only just building a competitive squad of players. I think they are reinventing Toronto FC. I haven't seen this sort of change to Toronto FC since Aron Winter was hired. Instead of trying to win the lottery and get foreigners, Leiweke and Bezbatchenko are getting proven MLS players to build the core of Toronto FC. I'll be honest, it's pretty difficult not to be encouraged by what has transpired at Toronto FC these past couple of weeks, and it looks like more is to come. I initially thought that Tim Bezbatchenko would be inexperienced in a General Manager role, but he has certainly impressed me, not just in the actions he was taking, but he manages to keep his mouth shut until after the move was made. He doesn't talk a big game, he just gets down to business, and I like that a lot. Sometimes what seems to be the most boring hire, could have the most impact on a club.

Finally, I want to say this. Toronto FC making the playoffs in 2014 will be a slap in the face to the likes of Tom Anselmi and Earl Cochrane (and to a very small extent, Paul Beirne). If Toronto FC were to make the playoffs in 2014, then it highlights what the real underlying problem was which plagued Toronto FC these last 7 years. TFC making the playoffs in 2014 will also be a slap in the face to the other "big men" that used to have their own visions of what TFC should be, like Mo Johnston, Aron Winter, and Kevin Payne. I'm not sure how Aron Winter's tenure at Toronto FC will hurt his future coaching and managerial career, but if Toronto FC happens to succeed, it will definitely hurt Mo Johnston and Kevin Payne's reputation, and won't help their chances of getting hired elsewhere. Also, wouldn't it be funny that if Toronto FC were to make the playoffs, it would be led by the least experienced Toronto FC coach, but that's assuming Ryan Nelsen doesn't get fired. It's Toronto FC. Anything can happen.

Regardless, these are optimistic times in the land of Toronto FC.

2014 FIFA World Cup Group Stage Draw - Reaction + Predictions

So, the Group Stage Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup is all set. After taking a few hours to digest the newly-formed groups, it's about time for me to share my thoughts on those groups, and offer (very early) predictions on who I think will make it out of the groups. Some groups were easy to predict, and others require a lot of thinking to predict. Anyways, here's what I thought:

Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon

Not surprisingly, since the World Cup is being hosted by Brazil, they are going to get most of the spotlight in the tournament. Brazil have shown that they can respond well to the pressure of the home crowd (Confederations Cup 2013), so I don't see Brazil having much trouble with their opponents. Cameroon, on the other hand, have a couple of decent players (Eto'o, Song) but I can't see them progressing out of the group.

Mexico and Croatia are interesting to me, as they both underperformed getting to the World Cup. Mexico had an awful CONCACAF campaign and had to beat New Zealand in the FIFA play-off. Croatia had to beat a spirited Iceland side in the UEFA play-off. I picked Croatia to progress because they have more quality players than Mexico, and Mexico were just plain awful in the hex. Mexico needs a lot more improvement than Croatia do.

It's worth noting that Croatia (3429) has to travel almost 3000 miles more than Mexico does (662) to get to their matches. This is an advantage for Mexico, as they will be more fresh than Croatia when they finally play each other for their final group matches.

My Predictions: Brazil to top the group, Croatia to finish runner-up.

Group B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia

First things first, I'm sure Australia are just happy to actually make it.

Spain, even though they've regressed slightly, are still one of the top teams in world football and are capable of repeating as World Cup champions. This is obviously a tough group for them, but they'll have these teams chasing the ball up and down the pitch with their tiki-taka style, so I'm sure they'll progress.

The Netherlands and Chile will be the ones to battle it out for the second spot out of the group. Both teams are ruthless and hungry in attack, but they are a bit weak in the back. I picked the Netherlands over Chile because of their experience in big tournaments and Chile are a bit of a young, almost naive side, especially when I watched them play Brazil at the Rogers Centre.

My Predictions: Spain to top the group, Netherlands to finish runner-up.

Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan

Colombia is my "dark horse" of the tournament. That team has the power to surprise a lot of people and go very deep in the tournament. They are the favourites to finish first in the group. Plus, they have Falcao, who is probably one of the best strikers in world football right now.

It was a tough choice for who would take the second spot. The Ivory Coast are stacked in attacking options (Drogba, Gervinho, Bony) and have Yaya Toure as their midfield destroyer. Japan are playing well right now and have some outstanding creative players in Kagawa and Honda. Greece are industrial (aka boring), but are difficult to break down. I ended up barely choosing the Ivory Coast over Japan.

My Predictions: Colombia to top the group, Ivory Coast to finish runner-up.

Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy

Costa Rica may be a solid team in CONCACAF, but they have no chance in this group.

Which leaves 3 teams competing for 2 spots. I believe Italy are the best team in this group, but not by much. If their world-renowned defence can stay focused and not make stupid mistakes, then they are winning the group. Uruguay have the best offence in the group, with Suarez and Cavani leading the charge, among other sublime players on that side.

England are another story altogether. They have good players, and on a good day, they can hang with the best of Europe, but they lack creativity. Their style of play is very direct, not very technical, and easy to figure out by opponents. It also doesn't help that there is going to be a media circus around them. The English footballing media hypes up the England players as superstars and make bold claims that "this is our year", but then slam those same players when England are knocked out. A lot of people talk about why England don't have a very good national team. Lets face it, the media is one of the major reasons why.

My Predictions: Italy to top the group, Uruguay to finish runner-up.

Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras

France ALWAYS seems to get the easiest group. I don't know if this is just coincidence, or Michel Platini is paying FIFA under the table (don't think many would be surprised at that lol). Anyways, France at a World Cup is usually hit (1998, 2006) or miss (2002, 2010). If we were to follow the pattern, France should do just fine. Let's hope there are no more mutinies in that solid core of players.

Honduras did well to get to this stage, but they will be outclassed in this group. It was a bit difficult to choose between Switzerland and Ecuador, but after looking at their teams, I chose the Swiss.

My Predictions: France to top the group, Switzerland to finish runner-up.

Group F: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria

Argentina are, by far, the best team in this group. The other teams don't come close. With Argentina, I think the narrative will surround Lionel Messi and say something like: "Can he finally win the World Cup and become one of the best players to ever play the game". Something like that.

Bosnia and Nigeria is close to call for the second spot in the group. I think Bosnia has a bit more quality going forward, and they also have a solid goalkeeper in Asmir Begovic.

Honestly, I can't really say much about the Iran national team, because I don't really know them.

My Predictions: Argentina to top the group, Bosnia-Herzegovina to finish runner-up.

Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA

Yikes. I think this is the toughest group of them all in terms of the teams involved.

Germany are the ones that will most likely finish first in the group. They have a number of amazing players that can take the team deep in the tournament. Portugal's national team isn't that great, but they do have Cristiano Ronaldo, a player who can single-handedly turn the match on its head and push Portugal to the later stages of the tournament. Portugal is the perfect example of the "one-man team". Ghana has some very good midfield and attacking options, but I can't see them progressing.

Which brings me to the USA. The odds are stacked against them. If there is any national team I can think of that has the "never say die" attitude, it is the USA, but I think this is too much for them. They have to travel the most out of all the teams in the World Cup, they have to face a Ghana side that knocked them out of the last 2 World Cups, and they have to play two European juggernauts. The American football media can hype the team all they want, but I don't think they will be progressing.

My Predictions: Germany to top the group, Portugal to finish runner-up.

Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, Korea Republic

Belgium have a "golden generation" of players, and many people pick them to be the surprise of the tournament. I don't think they will do well in the later stages of the tournament, but I think they will top the group. I picked Russia to come second, because I don't think Algeria and South Korea will do a whole lot.

My Predictions: Belgium to top the group, Russia to finish runner-up.

So, there you have it. A lot can change between now and June. Some teams that people may have wrote off can go on an incredible run of form, or maybe some teams picked to be favourites may go on a slump. Who knows? I may revisit my predictions closer to the World Cup, but for now, this is what I am sticking with.